Oil at 130 in twelve months
Ecstrat Emad Mostaque's call is that oil prices are heading for the highs of seven years ago and that the Brent forward curve will flip from Backwardation into Contango.
His basis is that capital investment into untapped crude reserves over the last couple of years has been far less than required to shore up a stable supply chain of the commodity. High prices in this case will be driven from the supply side rather than the demand side of the market.
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It follows of course, as Mostaque anticipates, that this massive reversion of current market trends will also wash through to the equity markets in the gulf. If you are with Mostaque, you would want to be long oil and long oil securities on Tadawul, especially as Saudi Arabia has been loosening up liquidity in its security markets.
Let's see ... Market forecasts are often impacted by what we can't see.