Disruptive Markets  

   Managing Uncertainty    

Causal Capital - Knowledge Capital Specialists

Sunday, February 11, 2018

The last week of market madness [LINK] should be a stark reminder to all of us that [1] Donald Trump may not be the reason for the market highs [LINK] (nothing unexpected there) and [2] as a community, we haven't learned too much since the Global Financial Crisis. The good old saying for bubbles, wh...

Saturday, October 21, 2017

If you are one of those people that believe in mean reversion, that markets, perhaps all things have cycles, then this VIX ETP Vega Notional chart below should strike you as being poised for a very scary regime shift. If Artemis Capital Management and their Alchemy of Risk publication have it right...

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Papers on disruptive technology or the companies that are researching and developing such novel ideas are abundant, especially in the Fintech domain, but papers on how there is also a shift in the way these companies are being valued is well, umm quite an interesting read.

 Corporate Strategies for a...

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

A new paper from the Bank for International Settlements on "Endogenous Wage Indexation and Aggregate Shocks" finds empirical evidence that there is considerable time variation in the degree of wage indexation and past inflation.

More information on the BIS whitepaper can be found here [LINK].

There ar...

Monday, March 21, 2016

If you are working across the securities market, investing, trading or supplying treasury services to businesses, this white paper from IOSCO is a good read from a risk management perspective.

Risk registries are certainly not an uncommon feature of a typical enterprise risk management framework...

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

There are several market dynamics that when viewed together will paint a very clear forward-looking picture on the state of an economy, even the global economy can be drawn this way. The five indicators we are looking at today are:

  • 1 Low trade volumes

  • 2 Collapse of prices in commod...

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Last year we heard from Lord King on the state of the banking system, an interesting quick bite in the Telegraph that has Mervyn King describing the banks being in a place of "not fully recovered from the Global Financial Crisis".

Yesterday, Mervyn King was back at it introducing his new book "T...

Thursday, February 25, 2016

In the theme of Party like it's 1999, we should be partying likes it's 2016. That's what comes to mind when I read through the "A lens for viewing the global economy" presentation that has just been published by the Bank for International Settlements.

We all know from looking at the markets, it's far...

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Transparency Reduces Risk, it doesn't increase it. All that said, China doesn't appear to be catching on.

"Beijing (AP) -- A new Chinese regulation announced this week will require foreign companies and foreign-Chinese joint ventures to acquire approval before publishing content online, in the govern...

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Apparently it's not 2008.  Yes, we know that, well some of us do but it is starting to feel like 'Market Déjà vu', that is the sentiment under all of this.

Don't Panic 'Experts' agree that it's not 2008 | Zero Hedge [LINK]

Here is the crumble with such thinking, if everyone is saying it's not 2008 and...

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Interesting Reading

Jun 09, 2016

Chris Macintosh

Australia's AAA rating grossly underestimates the growth of concentrated risk in the country.

Jan 01, 2020


A new disruptive phenomenon for traditional lenders is the move beyond securitisation via derivatives to the emergence of Marketplace Lenders.